Apple Thoughts: Will They or Won't They?

"As if waiting around until fall to get iOS 4 weren't enough of a downer for iPad owners, the latest rumor we're hearing is that they'll have to pay a fee in order to do so."

Several sites are reporting this "rumor" but, as pointed out at Apple Insider [link], the charge would be a contradiction with their licensing agreement that states "the next major release would be free for hardware owners." So your guess is as good as mine but I'm hoping for free. What are your thoughts? Do you think the recent 3.2.1 is enough of an update to qualify as a "major release" and are you expecting to pay when iOS 4 for iPad comes out?